case study 6th Oct 2025

📊 Intraday Strategy with HMA + VWAP

Date Observed: October 6, 2025
Index: Nifty 50
Chart Timeframe: 15-Minute
Platform: TradingView (Free Plan) + ICICI Demat Chart

🔍 Strategy Overview

This post documents a minimalist yet powerful intraday trading setup using just two indicators—Hull Moving Average (HMA 9) and VWAP—on a 15-minute chart. The goal is to identify high-probability entries using candlestick psychology, trend slope, and institutional price zones.

🧠 Core Indicators

Indicator	Role	Why It Matters
HMA (9)	Momentum & Trend Angle	A steep upward slope (>60°) signals strong directional bias and confirms bullish momentum.
VWAP	Fair Value & Entry Zone	Anchored to volume, VWAP acts as a magnet for price and helps identify safe entry points near institutional interest.

Note: On ICICI Demat charts, SMA (50) is used for broader trend confirmation.

📈 Trade Setups Observed

1️⃣ 9:45 AM – Bullish Engulfing

Setup: Engulfing candle formed near VWAP with HMA sharply rising.
Confirmation: Price above SMA (50) on ICICI chart.
Trade Logic:
• Entry: Above engulfing candle
• SL: Below candle low
• Target: Next resistance (e.g., 25,085)

✅ High-conviction trade with strong momentum and institutional support.

2️⃣ 12:45 PM – Hammer + Engulfing Combo

Setup: Hammer candle rejected lower prices, followed by bullish engulfing.
HMA: Continued steep rise.
VWAP: Acted as support zone.
Trade Logic:
• Entry: Above engulfing candle
• SL: Below hammer wick
• Target: Session high or fib extension

✅ Elegant reversal structure with psychological clarity.

3️⃣ Around 3 PM – Minor Opportunity

Setup: Small engulfing candle, limited volume.
Context: Late session, lower conviction.
Trade Logic:
• Entry: Only if SL is minimal
• Target: Scalp-level gains

⚠️ Avoided due to time decay and reduced momentum.

🧱 Modular Trade Logic

Entry Criteria:
- Candle pattern near VWAP (Engulfing, Hammer + Engulfing)
- HMA (9) rising at steep angle
- Price above SMA (50) on ICICI chart
Stop Loss: Below candle low or VWAP zone
Target: Next resistance or fib extension; trail SL if momentum continues

🧭 Timeframe Discipline

15-Minute: Primary chart for entries
5-Minute: SL refinement (optional)
30-Minute: Trend context (visual check only)

🧠 Why This Works

This strategy blends:

Candlestick psychology (engulfing = emotional shift)
Indicator geometry (HMA slope = momentum)
Volume logic (VWAP = institutional zones)

It’s designed for traders who value clarity, minimalism, and asymmetric risk-reward—small SL, big target.

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